Rural Voters Who Defended Trump at Reunions Reconsider the Marriage
STORM LAKE, Iowa — The longest-running political romance in rural America is facing a difficult conversation.
For years, farmers defended Donald Trump against relatives, neighbors, television commentators and occasionally their own spouses. They wore the campaign hats, planted the yard signs and drove four hours to rallies where the parking was free and the lemonade was not. Some argued about politics so enthusiastically that Thanksgiving dinner required assigned seating and a temporary ceasefire.
Now a growing economic frustration has raised an awkward new question: what exactly happened to the prosperity?
An Iowa farmer described the political relationship as a marriage in which one partner keeps promising a magnificent vacation while the other keeps receiving the credit-card statements.
“I thought we were going somewhere wonderful,” he explained. “Instead, we’ve spent ten years discussing how wonderful the destination is going to be.”
Political Love Meets the Household Budget on the American Farm
The farmer said he still appreciated many conservative principles. He believed in hard work. He valued personal responsibility. He preferred limited government. He also preferred a government capable of explaining why farm production costs kept climbing while politicians celebrated historic prosperity.
The numbers back him up. The Purdue University/CME Group farmer sentiment survey found that 35% of producers expect their operations to be worse off financially a year from now, compared with 22% who expect improvement, and a record 52% named higher input costs as their top concern. The farmer had not read the survey. He had read the invoices, which he said were more current.
Republican consultants insisted that the problem was merely temporary economic discomfort. The farmer replied that temporary discomfort usually ended before the equipment dealer started charging interest.
A political relationship counselor was summoned and asked both sides to communicate honestly. Republicans explained that farmers remained essential to America’s future. Farmers explained that the future was becoming too expensive. Republicans promised more economic growth. Farmers asked whether the growth would arrive before their operating loans matured.
The counselor recommended that everyone stop using the word “tremendous.” The atmosphere improved immediately.
Democrats observed the disagreement with considerable interest. One candidate offered farmers a fresh political relationship based on economic security, fairness and mutual respect. The farmer asked whether the Democrats understood agricultural markets. The candidate said they were committed to learning.
“That’s what the Republicans said ten years ago.”
The candidate promised that this time would be different. The farmer asked whether the candidate had ever been married. The session ended shortly afterward.
Rural Counties Are Staying Home on Election Day
The marriage trouble is showing up somewhere harder to argue with than a kitchen table: the turnout sheets. Across the country, party officials in farm counties report enthusiasm that is, in the words of one county chair, “excellent, but it has not left the house.”
What the Early Voting Numbers Show in Rural Georgia
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis of Georgia early voting found that in the 132 counties Trump carried in the last presidential race, early turnout was essentially flat compared with the same point in the previous midterm. In the 27 counties that voted for Kamala Harris, ballots cast were up 9%. In Coffee, Colquitt and Laurens counties, early turnout was down by double digits.
Analysts urged caution. Republicans traditionally vote later, so early numbers show who has voted, not who will. A south Georgia peanut farmer said he understood the caution and was taking it to heart. “I’ll vote Tuesday,” he said. “Probably Tuesday. If it doesn’t rain on the soybeans.”
Why Rural Republicans Stay Home Instead of Switching Sides
Political scientists keep returning to the same distinction. In a Brookings analysis, senior fellow William Galston noted that Trump’s net approval among rural voters in Fox News polling dropped from +20 to -14 over the course of the term, and that among white rural voters only 25% strongly approve of his job performance while 41% strongly disapprove. He wrote that rural sentiment does not suggest high enthusiasm for Republican House and Senate candidates and that many rural voters could simply stay home. He also stressed that none of this means larger numbers of rural Americans will vote Democratic.
A KFF/AP survey of rural voters reached a similar conclusion. Rural voters still trust Republicans more than Democrats on most major issues, but economic dissatisfaction may dampen turnout among rural Republicans. Trump’s standing has also bounced around. A more recent Echelon Insights poll put his rural approval at 50%, one point above water, after a steep decline the month before.
Farmers at a co-op in northwest Iowa offered a simpler version of the research. “I’m not switching sides,” said one, loading a pallet of mineral tubs. “I’m just not getting in the truck.”
The Leaked Turnout Memo
A memo circulated among Midwest county Republican chairs, and obtained by this publication, outlines the party’s concerns about the countryside. “Residents continue to report that they are with us in spirit,” the memo states. “Spirit does not appear on the poll book.”
Under a section titled Rural Outreach Obstacles, the memo lists chores, weather, the distance to the polling place, which one voter described as “farther than the bank, and I go to the bank more,” and “unresolved feelings about fertilizer.” It recommends a reminder postcard. A footnote notes that postcards have been tried.
Minutes of a County Republican Central Committee Meeting
Minutes from a recent monthly meeting of a central Iowa county Republican committee record eleven members present. The meeting was called to order at 7:02 p.m. The treasurer reported a balance of $412 and a yard-sign inventory of 300. A motion to hold a get-out-the-vote barbecue was carried after discussion about who would buy the brisket. A motion to buy the brisket failed for lack of a second.
A member asked whether unused yard signs could be returned for credit. The chair ruled the question out of order. The meeting adjourned at 7:41 p.m. when the pie ran out.
Rural Voters Can Stay Conservative and Still Be Frustrated
Political analysts caution that dissatisfaction with a party does not automatically translate into support for its opponent. Rural voters can remain conservative while becoming frustrated with individual leaders, economic policy or the direction of the country.
That distinction is inconvenient for campaign consultants. It is considerably less confusing to farmers.
One producer explained that he could appreciate Trump, agree with certain Republican policies and still criticize the administration’s handling of agricultural economics. A campaign volunteer informed him that this position was politically inconsistent. The farmer replied that his livestock had never required ideological consistency. They simply required feeding.
The Campaign Hat Goes on the Shelf
As the sun set over the fields, the farmer took off his old campaign hat and put it on a shelf. He did not burn it. He did not announce a conversion to socialism. He sat down at the kitchen table and went through the bills.
His wife asked whether he still loved Trump.
“Sure,” he replied.
“Then what’s changed?”
He looked at the bank statement.
“I finally realized that loving somebody and hiring them to manage the economy are two completely different decisions.”
His wife nodded. Then she handed him another fertilizer invoice.
“Well, your next relationship had better come with a paycheck.”
Five Humorous Observations About Farmers, Trump and the Ballot Box
- You ever notice a farmer will drive forty minutes to return a three-dollar part but won’t drive ten to vote? That’s not apathy. That’s a man who has done the math on which one comes with a refund policy.
- Politicians keep calling farmers the backbone of America. Nobody pays attention to the backbone until it hurts. And then it’s a medical bill.
- I’m not saying the farmer was upset about the fertilizer price. I’m saying when he saw it, he sat down on a bag of it and nobody heard from him until Thursday.
- I respect ten years of loyalty. I’ve stayed in worse relationships. But a party that only calls you during election season and sends a yard sign? That’s a Valentine’s card from a guy who doesn’t know your last name.
- What is the deal with the yard sign? You stick it in the ground in the fall, it’s out by the mailbox until the spring thaw, and by then it’s just a piece of plastic with a name on it that you’re too polite to throw out. It’s the only political commitment in America with a longer shelf life than the politician.