Farmers discover the reward for growing more is getting paid less
DES MOINES, IOWA – American farmers have successfully demonstrated their extraordinary ability to grow corn, producing such enormous quantities that agricultural economists are now investigating whether farmers might have accidentally become too good at their jobs.
The USDA’s October 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast approximately 16.03 billion bushels of corn, with average yields reaching 181.2 bushels per acre, DTN reported. Unfortunately, the government’s projected season-average farm price declined to $4.70 per bushel.
Farmers greeted the announcement with the enthusiasm normally reserved for discovering a dead battery in a combine during harvest. Apparently, the reward for growing more corn is being paid less for it.
America Discovers the Agricultural Success Penalty
For generations, economists have encouraged farmers to improve productivity. Plant better seeds. Adopt advanced technology. Use precision agriculture. Increase yields. Become more efficient.
Farmers followed these instructions, producing mountains of grain. Economists then explained that the additional supply could depress prices.
An Iowa farmer summarized the arrangement.
“So you’re telling me that if I grow less corn, I might make more money?”
“Potentially.”
“But if I grow more, I might make less?”
“Correct.”
“And you people went to college for this?”
The economist reportedly excused himself to examine a supply-and-demand diagram.
USDA Raises Ending Stocks: The Corn Mountain Grows
USDA also increased projected ending corn stocks to approximately 1.85 billion bushels. That represents a tremendous quantity of grain awaiting future demand.
A Department of Agricultural Storage Innovation has proposed constructing a giant corn mountain visible from space. The structure would include observation decks, souvenir shops and an educational exhibit explaining why American farmers can fill enormous grain bins without filling their checking accounts. Visitors would pay admission. Farmers would receive complimentary parking.
A national poll asked 500 farmers what they would prefer to produce next year. Seventy-two percent answered, “A profit.” Twenty percent answered, “Whatever the market wants.” Eight percent answered, “A grain-market analyst who can explain this without smiling.”
Washington Introduces the Corn Affordability Initiative
Federal officials are reportedly considering an agricultural program encouraging Americans to use corn in more everyday activities. Proposed applications include corn-based furniture, decorative corn driveways and replacing congressional documents with biodegradable corn tortillas.
One congressional consultant suggested that every household purchase 10,000 bushels annually. When reminded that the average household cannot store 10,000 bushels, the consultant recommended creating a federal corn-storage subsidy.
A farmer asked whether the government could instead improve export opportunities and strengthen market access. The consultant suggested forming a committee.
Farmers Have Already Solved the Production Problem
The real economic contradiction is that higher output does not automatically mean higher profits. Revenue depends on both quantity and price, while profitability also depends on seed, fertilizer, fuel, land, labor and equipment costs.
A farmer producing 200 bushels per acre at $4.70 earns $940 in gross crop revenue per acre before expenses. That sounds impressive until the invoices arrive. Farmers therefore face an unusual business challenge: increasing production without producing themselves into bankruptcy.
One Iowa producer offered an alternative national agricultural strategy.
“How about we stop congratulating ourselves on how much corn we grow and start discussing how much money we keep?”
Washington reportedly agreed that the question deserved serious attention. It immediately ordered another production forecast.
The forecast was excellent. The farmer remained broke.
The Evidence File
Mathematical Calculations
Multiply 16.03 billion bushels by $4.70 and the nation’s corn crop is worth about $75.3 billion at the forecast price. Spread over 1.85 billion bushels of ending stock, the pile of unsold corn alone is worth roughly $8.7 billion, a sum that happens to sit within shouting distance of the $8 billion diesel relief program. The pile is the only item in this entire story that is already built and fully paid for in sweat.
Before-and-After Comparison
Before the yield forecast, corn futures traded as if the crop were manageable. After it, Farm Progress reported corn sinking 30 cents to a six-week low. A 30-cent drop on 16 billion bushels would erase billions of dollars before lunch, which is how farmers explain why the market’s version of lunch is so short.
Absurd Comparisons
The corn market works like a bakery that trained its bakers too well. Nobody complains about the bread. The bakers just start paying people to take it. AgWeb described the reaction as an “unexpected blow,” a polite way of saying the bakers weren’t notified.
Sources and Further Reading
Read the numbers at DTN Progressive Farmer, AgWeb and the official USDA WASDE reports. For corn grower policy, see National Corn Growers Association.
Source: The USDA’s October 9 report projected 16.03 billion bushels, 181.2 bushels per acre, ending stocks of 1.849 billion bushels and a $4.70 season-average price.
Humorous Observations
- “Grow less corn, make more money.” We’ve apparently discovered the only industry where the best business plan is a nap.
- A corn mountain visible from space with a gift shop. Sir, there’s already a mountain of corn. It’s called Nebraska, and the gift shop is a Casey’s.
- Replace congressional documents with biodegradable corn tortillas. Finally, a government product that can be eaten and is less indigestible than the real thing.
- The forecast was excellent. The farmer remained broke. That’s not agriculture. That’s a coach talking about how well the team played.
- Eight percent wanted an analyst who could explain it without smiling. Pal, you can’t hire one. They all smile. It’s the only job where the smile comes with the severance.
Last Updated on August 25, 2023 by Alan Nafzger