Iowa Farmers Learn the Market Does Not Attend Rallies
AMES, Iowa — Republican agricultural strategists are facing a serious communications problem after discovering that corn prices refuse to respond to political speeches.
For years, Washington operated under the assumption that sufficiently enthusiastic presidential announcements could influence virtually anything, including international commodity markets, rainfall and the temperament of Holstein cows.
Unfortunately, corn has demonstrated an alarming indifference to presidential authority.
An Iowa farmer first noticed the problem after listening to a speech promising historic agricultural prosperity. He immediately checked his grain marketing app. Nothing happened. He replayed the speech. Still nothing.
He eventually shouted “Make America Great Again” directly into his grain bin. The corn remained unmoved.
“I don’t think the corn is Republican anymore,” he concluded.
The Commodity Market Refuses to Attend Campaign Rallies
Agricultural economists patiently explained that corn prices respond to supply, demand, weather, export competition, ethanol consumption, transportation costs and numerous international market conditions. Republican consultants found the explanation unsatisfactory.
They preferred identifying one politician who could be praised when prices rose and blamed when prices fell. This arrangement had worked beautifully in cable television.
The grain market, however, displayed no interest in appearing on cable television.
One Republican strategist proposed increasing corn prices by issuing an executive order requiring every bushel to appreciate the president.
A farmer explained that grain elevators normally calculate prices in dollars, not appreciation. The strategist suggested converting appreciation into a cryptocurrency. Democrats offered their own agricultural solutions.
A progressive candidate promised to fight corporate greed throughout the food supply chain.
The farmer asked whether reducing corporate greed would raise his local cash corn bid. The candidate said it would send an important message.
“I’ve been sending important messages for twenty years,” replied the farmer. “The grain elevator still sends checks.”
Another Democrat proposed forming a commission to investigate agricultural price volatility.
The farmer wondered whether the commission could simply purchase 40,000 bushels from him at a profitable price. The candidate preferred studying the issue. This led to a remarkable bipartisan breakthrough.
Both parties agreed that studying corn was considerably easier than selling it.
Meanwhile, the farmer continued tracking export reports, grain inventories and transportation costs.
His Republican neighbor argued that Trump deserved credit whenever commodity prices improved.
His Democratic neighbor argued that Trump deserved blame whenever they declined.
Both neighbors appeared disappointed to learn that Brazilian crop production also mattered.
“Now you’re telling me Brazil gets a vote?” asked one.
The farmer explained that Brazil was not voting in American elections but was definitely competing in American soybean markets. The neighbors demanded a recount anyway.
Rural Voter Sentiment Is Slipping With the Farm Economy
The farmer in Ames is not an outlier. In Fox News polling reported by Newsweek, rural voters rated Trump’s handling of the economy at 30% approve and 70% disapprove. The Brookings analysis adds that among white rural voters, Trump’s net approval fell from +27 early in his term to -6, a reversal that analysts say matters less for who rural voters pick than for whether they bother to show up.
Transcript of a Call to the Grain Elevator
Farmer: What’s the cash bid on corn today?
Elevator: Same as yesterday.
Farmer: Did the speech move it?
Elevator: What speech?
Farmer: The president’s.
Elevator: Hang on, I’ll check. (Pause.) No.
Farmer: Thanks.
Elevator: Anytime. Don’t shout at the bin again.
Findings From the Grain Bin
A crop consultant who examined the bin afterward reported that the corn showed “no trace of political affiliation” and was “in generally sound condition.” The consultant noted a “moderate trace of disappointment” in the farmer. The report was filed under routine inspections.
A Professor Explains Brazil
“Corn is a global commodity,” said an agricultural economist who teaches at a Midwestern university. “A crop in Brazil can move your price more than a speech in Iowa. I’ve explained this to three campaign managers. Two of them asked me which country Brazil was in.” She said she has since stopped taking calls from campaign managers.
By evening, the farmer had reached a practical conclusion. Politicians could promise stronger markets.
They could support infrastructure, negotiate trade agreements and influence agricultural policy. But they could not guarantee the price of corn. Which was unfortunate.
Because the farmer’s lender had specifically requested dollars, not campaign enthusiasm.
Five Humorous Observations About Corn and Politics
- A man yells “Make America Great Again” into a grain bin and the corn doesn’t respond. That’s the most honest poll of the year.
- Brazil gets a vote on corn. Brazil’s not even a registered voter and it’s the swing state.
- Politicians want one guy to blame for the price of corn. I want one guy to blame for my knee. We don’t always get what we want.
- Cryptocurrency made of presidential appreciation. Folks, that’s a pyramid scheme with a flag on it.
- A commission to study corn. Great. Study it in my bin. It’s right here, it’s not complicated, and it’s cheap.