Farmers ask whether China is buying beans or just looking

DES MOINES, Iowa – American soybean farmers are celebrating a remarkable export report showing that shipments reached a marketing-year high while new sales declined 44%, demonstrating agriculture’s unique ability to produce excellent news and financial anxiety simultaneously.

According to USDA export data reported by Feed & Grain, soybean shipments reached approximately 2.53 million metric tons during the latest reporting week. The Foreign Agricultural Service’s weekly highlights put the figure at 2,530,900 metric tons, up 6 percent from the previous week, with China as the largest destination at roughly 1.59 million. New net sales came in at 1,456,100 metric tons, down 44 percent from the week before.

Farmers were delighted that somebody was purchasing their soybeans.

They were less enthusiastic about discovering that the next somebody might be taking the week off.

China Soybean Purchases: A Surprisingly Useful Customer

Chinese buyers accounted for a substantial share of the week’s shipments.

A Chinese purchasing official described the arrangement as beneficial.

“American farmers grow excellent soybeans. We purchase them whenever market conditions are attractive.”

An Iowa farmer asked whether the Chinese government had considered purchasing them when market conditions were attractive to Iowa farmers.

The official explained that international trade did not operate that way.

The farmer replied that after forty years growing soybeans, he had developed similar suspicions.

Economists Explain Why Farmers Should Be Excited

A Washington agricultural economist described the export report as encouraging.

“Shipments are strong, reflecting healthy demand.”

A farmer pointed out that new sales had fallen sharply.

“That reflects normal market volatility.”

“So should I be happy or worried?”

“Both.”

The farmer asked how many years of university education were required to deliver contradictory advice with such confidence.

The economist declined to reveal his student loan balance.

A spokesman for a national commodity group, reached by phone, described the numbers as “cautiously optimistic about a cautiously uncertain situation,” then asked the reporter not to quote him on that, then asked what he had meant.

A marketing consultant suggested that farmers remain optimistic about long-term Chinese demand.

The farmer asked whether optimism could be used as collateral.

His banker said yes, provided it was accompanied by 160 acres of paid-off land.

Farmers Launch Soybean Dating Service

One enterprising farmer proposed creating a dating application for commodity buyers.

The service would match American soybean producers with foreign importers based on price expectations, transportation availability and commitment issues.

China would receive a profile stating, “Interested in a long-term relationship, but currently exploring other options.”

Brazil would be listed as “It’s complicated.”

American farmers would select “Looking for serious buyers, no time-wasters.”

The application’s premium membership would allow growers to see whether a buyer had read their price offer before disappearing for six months.

Growers who prefer to follow the numbers without a profile photo can check the USDA’s weekly export sales reports or the American Soybean Association, both of which are updated more reliably than most buyers.

Farmers Prefer Profit to Exciting Statistics

Strong shipments are genuinely important because they represent physical movement of crops already sold.

New sales, however, help indicate the demand pipeline ahead.

Both numbers matter.

But farmers cannot pay their bills using impressive national export totals if individual crop prices fail to cover production costs.

A Nebraska producer explained that his operation had achieved record efficiency.

“We raised more soybeans using better equipment and fewer labor hours.”

Asked how much more profit he earned, he pointed toward a grain bin.

“That’s where we keep the disappointment.”

His elevator settlement sheet, which he showed this newspaper, lists the bushels delivered, the price per bushel, the drying charge, the storage charge and a deduction labeled “Handling.” The line for “Net Amount to Farmer” is smaller than the line for “Handling” in two columns out of three.

The elevator manager, reached at his scale house, said the deductions were standard industry practice. Asked which industry, he said “the one with the scale.” He added that soybean prices could recover if China, Brazil, the weather, the dollar and the Mississippi River all cooperated in the same week, which he described as possible in the biblical sense.

The producer’s wife now keeps the settlement sheets in the same drawer as the property tax notices, on the theory that both are best read sitting down.

He said Washington should stop measuring agricultural success exclusively by how many bushels leave the country.

The more interesting question is how much money remains on the farm after they leave.

American agriculture has achieved record productivity. Now farmers would appreciate achieving something even more remarkable: getting paid enough to enjoy it.

Five Observations on the Soybean Export Report

1. Record shipments and sales down forty-four percent. It’s the only report where the headline and the footnote are filing for divorce.
2. Shipments are strong, sales are down. “Should I be happy or worried?” “Both.” That’s not economics. That’s being the father of a teenage girl.
3. The banker says optimism is acceptable collateral, as long as it comes with a hundred and sixty paid-off acres. So optimism does have value. It’s worth exactly 160 acres.
4. China’s profile says “interested in a long-term relationship but exploring other options.” Brazil’s says “it’s complicated.” That’s the farm export strategy and also my last three relationships.
5. The Nebraska guy points at the grain bin and says, “That’s where we keep the disappointment.” Biggest storage facility in the county and it’s mostly feelings.

Last Updated on November 9, 2026 by Alan Nafzger